[Khokela] Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumeneyo ngokubanzi zibonise ukuhla okuhla. Amaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe aba buthathaka kuqala aze omelezwa; nangona kunjalo, isiphelo-imfuno yetoluene yasekhaya / ixylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nazo zahlala zibuthathaka. Kwicala lonikezelo, unikezelo luye lwakhula ngokuthe ngcembe ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izityalo ezitsha, kwaye unikezelo olubuthathaka kunye neziseko zemfuno zatsalela amaxabiso emarike ekuxoxiwe ngawo ehle. Kuphela ziimveliso ezithile ezibone ukunyuka kwexabiso okuncinci, okuqhutywa zizinto ezifana namaxabiso aphantsi angaphambili kunye nokunyuka kwemfuno evela ekuqalisweni kwezityalo ezisezantsi emva kokugcinwa. Ubonelelo kunye nemfuno esisiseko yentengiso kaSeptemba iya kuhlala ibuthathaka, kodwa ngokugcinwa kwangaphambili kweholide ngaphambi kweholide emfutshane, intengiso inokuyeka ukuwa okanye iphinde ibuyele kancinane.
[Khokela]
Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/ixylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumeneyo ziqhele ukuhla ngokuguquguquka. Amaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe ayebuthathaka ekuqaleni phambi kokuba omelezwe; nangona kunjalo, imfuno yasekhaya ye-toluene / xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nazo zahlala zinobuvila. Kwicala lobonelelo, ukukhula okuthe gqolo kuqhutywa kukukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izityalo ezitsha, ukudodobalisa iziseko zemfuno yobonelelo kunye nokutsalela ezantsi amaxabiso emarike ekuxoxiwe ngawo. Ziimveliso ezimbalwa kuphela ezibone ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuncinci, oko kuxhaswe ngamaxabiso aphantsi angaphambili kunye nemfuno eyongeziweyo evela ekuqalisweni kwezityalo ezisezantsi emva kokulondolozwa. Izinto ezisisiseko zemfuno yokubonelela ziya kuhlala zibuthathaka ngoSeptemba, kodwa ngokugcinwa kwangaphambili kweholide ngaphambi kweholide emfutshane, intengiso inokuyeka ukuhla okanye inqanaba lokuphinda libuyele.
Uhlalutyo olusekwe kuthelekiso lwe-August Toluene/Xylene Amaxabiso kunye neDatha eyiSiseko
Ngokubanzi, amaxabiso abonise ukuhla, kodwa emva kokuwela kumanqanaba aphantsi, inzuzo yemveliso esezantsi iphuculwe kancinci. Ukukhula kwemfuno ngezigaba ekudityanisweni kwe-oyile kunye ne-PX yacothisa isantya sokuhla kwexabiso:
Uthethathethwano oluninzi kuMba waseRussia-Ukraine kunye neSaudi Arabia yokuQhubela iMveliso eQhubelekayo Gcina iMarike iBearish
Amaxabiso e-oyile ehle ngokuqhubekayo kule nyanga ngokuhla okukhulu ngokubanzi, njengoko i-US crude iguquguquka kakhulu phakathi kwe-$ 62- $ 68 yomphanda. I-US yabamba iingxoxo zobuqu kunye nelizwe laseYurophu, iUkraine, kunye nezinye izizwe zaseYurophu ukuxoxa ngokupheliswa kokwenyani kwingxabano yaseRussia-Ukraine, iphakamisa ulindelo oluhle lwentengiso. UDonald Trump uphinde wabonisa inkqubela phambili kwiingxoxo, ekhokelela ekupheliseni iiprimiyamu ze-geopolitical. I-OPEC + ekhokelwa yi-Saudi Arabia iqhubekile nokwandisa imveliso ukubamba isabelo semarike; idityaniswa nokuhla kwemfuno yeoli yase-US kunye nesantya esicothayo sokutsalwa kwe-oyile yase-US, iziseko zahlala zibuthathaka. Ngaphezu koko, idatha yezoqoqosho njenge-payrolls engeyiyo ifama kunye neenkonzo ze-PMI zaqala ukuthamba, kwaye i-Federal Reserve yabonisa ukuncitshiswa kwezinga ngoSeptemba, iqinisekisa ngakumbi imingcipheko ephantsi kwezoqoqosho. Ukuhla okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso e-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe kube ngumba ophambili ophembelela uluvo lwe-bearish kwiimarike ze-toluene kunye ne-xylene.
Inzuzo eyaneleyo evela kwiToluene Disproportionation & MX-PX Inkqubo emfutshane; Ukuthengwa kwempahla yaNgaphandle kweSigaba sePX Enterprises Kuxhasa iiMarike ezimbini zeBenzene
Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene, i-xylene, kunye namaxabiso e-PX alandele umkhwa wokuguquguquka okufanayo kodwa kunye nomahluko omncinci kwi-amplitude, ekhokelela kuphuculo oluncinci kwinzuzo evela kwi-toluene disproportionation kunye nenkqubo emfutshane ye-MX-PX. Amashishini e-Downstream PX aqhubekile ekuthengeni i-toluene kunye ne-xylene ngomlinganiselo ophakathi, ukuthintela ukukhula kwe-inventory kwi-Shandong yokucokisa ezizimeleyo kunye namachweba amakhulu e-Jiangsu ekuhlangabezaneni nokulindelweyo, ngaloo ndlela enikezela ngenkxaso eqinile kumaxabiso emarike.
IDivergent Supplies-Dema Dynamics phakathi kweToluene kunye neXylene Ncincisa ixabiso labo
Ngo-Agasti, izityalo ezitsha ezifana neYulong Petrochemical kunye ne-Ningbo Daxie zaqala ukuveliswa, ukwandisa ukubonelela. Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula kobonelelo bekugxininiswe kwixylene, kudala imfuno ezahlukeneyo zobonelelo phakathi kwetoluene kunye nexylene. Ngaphandle kokuhla kwexabiso okuqhutywa yimiba ye-bearish efana nokuhla kwamaxabiso e-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka, ukuhla kwe-toluene bekukuncinci kunoko kwexylene, ukucutha ixabiso labo ukuya kwi-200-250 yuan/ton.
Septemba Market Outlook
NgoSeptemba, iimfuno zokubonelela nge-toluene/xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nazo ziya kuhlala zibuthathaka. Imarike inokuqhubeka nokuguquguquka okubuthathaka ekuqaleni kwenyanga, kodwa iipateni zembali zonyaka zibonisa utyekelo lokuphucula ngoSeptemba. Ukongezelela, amaxabiso emarike angoku aphantsi kakhulu kwiminyaka emihlanu ephantsi, kwaye okulindelweyo kwi-stockpileing yangaphambi kweholide ngaphambi kweholide yoSuku lweSizwe kunokubonelela ngenkxaso, ukunciphisa ukuhla kwexabiso. Ukuba ngaba i-rebound yenzeke kuya kuxhomekeka kutshintsho kwimfuno eyongeziweyo. Ngezantsi luhlalutyo lweentsingiselo zemveliso nganye:
I-oyile ekrwada: Amaxabiso anokuthi alungelelaniswe phantsi koxinzelelo kunye noguquko olumxinwa
Uthethathethwano malunga nomba weRussia-Ukraine luya kuqhubeka, kunye ne-Ukraine ivumelana ngokwemigaqo kwisivumelwano "somhlaba woxolo". Onke amaqela aceba intlanganiso yamacala amathathu ebandakanya i-Ukraine, ilizwe laseYurophu, kunye ne-US Nangona inkqubo iya kuhlala ibuhlungu, iya kubonelela ngenkxaso ecacileyo kumaxabiso eoli ezantsi. Nangona kunjalo, ukupheliswa komlilo kunokwenzeka kakhulu nje ukuba iingxoxo ezilandelelweyo zibanjiwe, ezikhokelela ekuyekisweni ngakumbi kwezavenge zelizwe lezopolitiko. I-Saudi Arabia iya kuqhubeka nokunyusa imveliso, kwaye i-US ingena kwixesha lonyaka kwimfuno yeoli. Emva kokuthotywa kwe-inventri enqongopheleyo ngexesha lexesha eliphezulu, uloyiko lwentengiso olukhawulezileyo lwe-inventri lwakha kwixesha elingekhoyo, eliya kuthi nalo libe nobunzima kumaxabiso e-oyile. Ngaphaya koko, i-Federal Reserve inokuthi icuthe amaxabiso ngoSeptemba njengoko bekulindelekile, ukuguquguquka kugxininiso lwemarike ukuya kwisantya esilandelayo sokucutha izinga, okukhokelela kwimpembelelo engathathi hlangothi kumaxabiso eoli. I-Russia-Ukraine iingxoxo zokuyeka ukudubula, ukukhulula iipremiyamu ze-geopolitical, ukudodobala koqoqosho, kunye nokwakhiwa kwe-oyile kuya kuthi kucinezele amaxabiso eoyile ukuba ahlengahlengise ngokubuthathaka.
I-Toluene kunye ne-Xylene: Uthethathethwano lunokuba buthathaka kuqala, luze luqine
Iimarike zetoluene zasekhaya kunye nexylene kulindeleke ukuba zibe phantsi kuqala kwaye zibe phezulu ngoSeptemba, ngoluhlu olulinganiselweyo lokuguquguquka. I-Sinopec, i-PetroChina, kunye nabanye abavelisi baya kubeka phambili ukuzisebenzisa ngoSeptemba, kodwa amanye amashishini aya kwandisa intengiso yangaphandle kancinane. Idityaniswe nonikezelo olongezelekayo oluvela kwizityalo ezitsha ezifana ne-Ningbo Daxie, isithuba sobonelelo olusuka kwi-Yulong Petrochemical's planed performance cut rate iya kuzaliswa. Kwicala lemfuno, ngelixa iintsingiselo zembali zibonisa imfuno ephuculweyo ngoSeptemba, akukabikho zimpawu zokuthathwa kwemfuno okwangoku. Kuphela kusasazeka kwe-MX-PX eyandisiweyo egcine ulindelo lokuthengwa kwempahla ye-PX esezantsi ephila, inika inkxaso yexabiso elomeleleyo. Ukongeza, inzuzo ephantsi yokudityaniswa kwe-oyile kunye namaxabiso aphantsi eenxalenye ezinxulumene nokudityaniswa kuya kuthintela ukukhula kwemfuno yokudityaniswa kwe-oyile. Uhlalutyo olubanzi lubonisa ukuba iziseko zonikezelo-zimfuno zihlala zibuthathaka, kodwa amaxabiso akhoyo-kwiminyaka emihlanu ephantsi-anokuchasana okunamandla ukuhla ngakumbi. Ngaphezu koko, uhlengahlengiso olunokubakho lwemigaqo-nkqubo lunokunyusa uluvo lwentengiso. Ngaloo ndlela, imarike inokuthi ibe buthathaka kuqala kwaye yomelele ngoSeptemba, ngokuguquguquka okuncinci.
I-Benzene: Kulindeleke ukuba iHlanganise ngokubuthathaka kwiNyanga elandelayo
Amaxabiso eBenzene anokuthi azinze ngokuthe chu kunye nokuthambekela okubuthathaka. Ngaphambili kweendleko, i-oyile ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba ilungelelanise phantsi koxinzelelo kwinyanga ezayo, kunye neziko lokuguquguquka lilonke litshintshela ezantsi kancinci. Ngokusisiseko, amashishini asezantsi akanawo amandla okulandela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yokungonelanga kwee-odolo ezintsha kunye noluhlu lwempahla oluthe gqolo luphezulu kumacandelo asezantsi asezantsi, edala ukuxhathisa okukhulu kuthumelo lwamaxabiso. Kuphela kwenyanga yokuphela kolindelo lokuthengwa kweempahla neenkonzo ezisezantsi ezinokubonelela ngenkxaso.
PX: IMarike enokwenzeka ukuba iHlanganise ngokuguquguquka okumxinwa
Ukuchatshazelwa luphuhliso lwe-geopolitics kuMbindi Mpuma, ukuncitshiswa kwemilinganiselo yeFed, kunye nokuphazamiseka komgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wase-US, amaxabiso e-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe anokurhweba ngokubuthathaka, enikezela ngenkxaso yeendleko ezilinganiselweyo. Ngokusisiseko, ixesha lokugcinwa okugxilwe kwi-PX yasekhaya liphelile, ke unikezelo lulonke luya kuhlala luphezulu. Ukongeza, ukugunyaziswa komthamo omtsha we-MX kunokonyusa imveliso yePX ngokuthengwa kwangaphandle kwezinto ezikrwada zizityalo zePX. Kwicala lemfuno, amashishini e-PTA akhulisa ulondolozo ngenxa yeemali eziphantsi zokusetyenzwa, ezinyusa uxinzelelo lwemfuno yobonelelo lwe-PX yasekhaya kunye nokuzithemba kwimarike yokuxina.
I-MTBE: Ubonelelo olubuthathaka kodwa lweNkxaso yokuQhuba “Ubuthathaka kuqala, emva koko womelele”
Ubonelelo lweMTBE lwasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke ngakumbi ngoSeptemba. Imfuno yepetroli isenokuthi ihlale izinzile; ngelixa ukugcinwa kwempahla yangaphambi koSuku lweSizwe kunokuvelisa imfuno ethile, isiphumo sayo sokuxhasa kulindeleke ukuba sibe nomda. Ukongeza, uthethathethwano lokuthumela ngaphandle kweMTBE alunabunewunewu, lubeka uxinzelelo olusezantsi kumaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, inkxaso yeendleko iya kunciphisa ukuhla, okukhokelela ekulindelweyo "kukuqala buthathaka, emva koko kunamandla" kumaxabiso e-MTBE.
Ipetroli: Ubonelelo-Ufuna Uxinzelelo lokugcina iMarike ibuthathaka ngokuguquguquka
Amaxabiso epetroli asekhaya angaqhubeka eguquguquka ngokubuthathaka ngoSeptemba. I-oyile ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba ilungelelanise phantsi koxinzelelo neziko lokuguquguquka okusezantsi kancinci, inobunzima kwimarike yepetroli yasekhaya. Kwicala lokubonelela, amaxabiso okusebenza kwiinkampani ezinkulu ze-oyile ziya kuthotha ezantsi, kodwa ezo zisezihluzweni ezizimeleyo ziya kunyuka, ziqinisekisa ukubonelela ngepetroli okwaneleyo. Kwicala lemfuno, ngelixa ixesha lencopho "yeGolden September" linokuthi liqhube ukunyuka okuncinci kwimfuno yepetroli kunye nedizili, ukutshintshwa kwamandla amatsha kuya kunciphisa ubungakanani bophuculo. Phakathi kwezinto ezixutywayo ze-bullish kunye ne-bearish, amaxabiso epetroli asekhaya alindeleke ukuba atshintshe kancinci ngoSeptemba, kunye nexabiso eliphakathi elinokuthi lehle nge-50-100 yuan / ton.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-05-2025