[Isikhokelo] Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nayo ngokubanzi zibonise ukuhla okuguquguqukayo. Amaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe ayebuthathaka kuqala aze aqiniswe; nangona kunjalo, imfuno yokugqibela ye-toluene/xylene yasekhaya kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nayo yahlala ibuthathaka. Kwicala lokubonelela, ukubonelela kwanda kancinci ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izityalo ezintsha, kwaye ubuthathaka beziseko zokubonelela kunye nemfuno butsale amaxabiso amaninzi emarike ekuthethwe ngawo ezantsi. Zimbalwa kuphela iimveliso ezibone ukunyuka okuncinci kwexabiso, okuqhutywa zizinto ezifana namaxabiso aphantsi angaphambili kunye nokwanda kwemfuno evela ekuqalisweni kwakhona kwezinye izityalo ezisezantsi emva kokugcinwa. Iziseko zokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike kaSeptemba ziya kuhlala zibuthathaka, kodwa ngokugcinwa kwezinto ngaphambi kweeholide ngaphambi kweholide emfutshane, imakethi inokuyeka ukuwa okanye ibuyele umva kancinci.
[Inkokeli]
Ngo-Agasti, i-toluene/xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nayo ngokubanzi ziye zehla ngokuguquguquka. Amaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe ayebuthathaka ekuqaleni ngaphambi kokuba aqine; nangona kunjalo, imfuno yasekhaya ye-toluene/xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nayo yahlala incipha. Kwicala lokubonelela, ukukhula okuzinzileyo kuqhutywe kukukhululwa kwamandla kwezinye izityalo ezintsha, buthathaka iziseko zemfuno yokubonelela kwaye kutsalwa amaxabiso amaninzi emarike ekuthethwe ngawo. Zimbalwa kuphela iimveliso ezabona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuncinci, kuxhaswa ngamanqanaba azo aphantsi ngaphambili kunye nemfuno ekhulayo evela ekuqalisweni kwakhona kwezinye izityalo ezisezantsi emva kokugcinwa. Iziseko zemfuno yokubonelela ziya kuhlala zibuthathaka ngoSeptemba, kodwa ngokugcinwa kwezinto ngaphambi kweeholide ngaphambi kweholide emfutshane, imakethi inokuyeka ukwehla okanye iqalise ukubuyela umva kancinci.
Uhlalutyo olusekelwe ekuthelekisweni kwamaxabiso e-Agasti Toluene/Xylene kunye neDatha eSisiseko
Lilonke, amaxabiso abonise ukuhla, kodwa emva kokuhla ukuya kumanqanaba aphantsi, inzuzo yemveliso esezantsi iphucuke kancinci. Ukukhula kwemfuno ngokukhawulezileyo ekuxutyweni kweoyile kwaye iPX yehlisa isantya sokuhla kwamaxabiso:
Iingxoxo Ezininzi Ngomba WeRussia-Ukraine Nokunyuka Kwemveliso Okuqhubekayo KweSaudi Arabia Kugcina Imarike Ingahambi Kakuhle
Amaxabiso eoyile ehle rhoqo kule nyanga ngokuncipha okukhulu ngokubanzi, njengoko i-crude yase-US itshintshile kakhulu phakathi kwe-$62-$68 ngebhereli. I-US ibinengxoxo zobuso nelizwe laseYurophu, i-Ukraine, kunye namanye amazwe aseYurophu ukuxoxa ngokupheliswa komlilo ngokwenene kwingxabano ye-Russia-Ukraine, nto leyo ephakamisa ulindelo oluhle kwimarike. UDonald Trump ukwabonise inkqubela phambili kwiingxoxo, nto leyo ekhokelele ekuphelisweni okuqhubekayo kweeprimiyamu zezopolitiko. I-OPEC+ ekhokelwa yiSaudi Arabia iqhubekile nokwandisa imveliso ukuze ibambe isabelo semarike; kunye nokunciphisa imfuno yeoyile yase-US kunye nesantya esicothayo sokutsalwa kweoyile yase-US, izinto ezisisiseko zahlala zibuthathaka. Ngaphezu koko, idatha yezoqoqosho efana nemivuzo kunye neenkonzo ze-PMI ezingezizo zefama zaqala ukuthamba, kwaye i-Federal Reserve yabonisa ukuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso ngoSeptemba, iqinisekisa ngakumbi iingozi zokwehla kuqoqosho. Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe kwakukwayinto ephambili ebangela imvakalelo yokungabi namandla kwimarike ye-toluene kunye ne-xylene.
Inzuzo Eyaneleyo Evela Kwi-Toluene Disproportionation kunye ne-MX-PX Short Process; Ukuthengwa Kwangaphandle Okukhawulezileyo kwePX Enterprises Kuxhasa Iimarike Ezimbini ZeBenzene
Ngo-Agasti, amaxabiso e-toluene, i-xylene, kunye ne-PX alandela umkhwa ofanayo wokuguquguquka kodwa ngomahluko omncinci kwi-amplitude, nto leyo ekhokelele ekuphucukeni okuncinci kwinzuzo evela kwi-toluene disproportionation kunye nenkqubo emfutshane ye-MX-PX. Amashishini e-PX asezantsi aqhubeka nokuthenga i-toluene kunye ne-xylene ngobuninzi obuphakathi, ethintela ukukhula kwempahla kwiindawo zokucocisa ezizimeleyo zaseShandong kunye namazibuko amakhulu eJiangsu ekuhlangabezaneni nolindelo, ngaloo ndlela ebonelela ngenkxaso enamandla kumaxabiso emarike.
Umahluko phakathi kweToluene kunye neXylene kukunciphisa ukusasazeka kwexabiso labo
Ngo-Agasti, izityalo ezintsha ezifana neYulong Petrochemical kunye neNingbo Daxie zaqala ukuvelisa, nto leyo eyandisa ukunikezelwa kwemveliso. Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula kokunikezelwa kwemveliso kwakugxile kakhulu kwi-xylene, nto leyo eyadala umahluko phakathi kwe-toluene kunye ne-xylene. Nangona amaxabiso ehla ngenxa yezinto ezibangela ukuhla kwamaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka, ukwehla kwe-toluene kwakuncinci kune-xylene, nto leyo eyanciphisa ukusasazeka kwexabiso layo ukuya kwi-200-250 yuan/ton.
Imbonakalo yeMarike kaSeptemba
NgoSeptemba, iziseko zemfuno yokubonelela nge-toluene/xylene kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nayo ziya kuhlala zibuthathaka kakhulu. Imarike inokuqhubeka nomkhwa wayo wokuguquguquka obuthathaka ekuqaleni kwenyanga, kodwa iipateni zexesha lonyaka zembali zibonisa ukuthambekela kokuphucuka ngoSeptemba. Ukongeza, amaxabiso emarike angoku aphantsi kakhulu kwiminyaka emihlanu, kwaye ulindelo lokugcinwa okuxineneyo ngaphambi kweholide ngaphambi kweholide yoSuku lweSizwe lunokubonelela ngenkxaso ethile, luthintele ukwehla kwamaxabiso. Ukuba ukuphinda kubuye kuya kwenzeka kuya kuxhomekeka kutshintsho kwimfuno ekhulayo. Apha ngezantsi kukho uhlalutyo lweendlela zemveliso nganye:
Ioyile ekrwada: Amaxabiso Anokuthi Alungelelaniswe Phantsi Koxinzelelo Ngokuguquguquka Okuncinci
Iingxoxo malunga nomba weRussia-Ukraine ziya kuqhubeka, iUkraine ivumelana ngokomgaqo kwisivumelwano "soxolo lwendawo". Onke amaqela aceba intlanganiso yamacala amathathu equka iUkraine, ilizwe laseYurophu, kunye ne-US. Nangona le nkqubo iza kuhlala inzima, iya kubonelela ngenkxaso ecacileyo yamaxabiso eoyile asezantsi. Nangona kunjalo, ukumiswa komthetho kunokwenzeka kakhulu xa kubanjwe iingxoxo ezilandelayo, nto leyo ekhokelela ekukhululweni kweeprimiyamu ze-geopolitical. ISaudi Arabia iya kuqhubeka nokunyusa imveliso, kwaye i-US ingena ekuthomalaleni kwemfuno yeoyile ngexesha lonyaka. Emva kokuncitshiswa kwempahla ngexesha lexesha eliphezulu, imakethi iyoyika ukwakhiwa kwempahla ngokukhawuleza ngexesha lokungabikho kwexesha, okuya kubeka nexabiso kwixabiso leoyile. Ngaphezu koko, iFederal Reserve isenokunciphisa amaxabiso ngoSeptemba njengoko bekulindelwe, itshintshela ingqalelo yemarike kwisantya esilandelayo sokuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso, okubangela impembelelo engathathi cala kumaxabiso eoyile. Iingxoxo zokumiswa komthetho phakathi kweRussia neUkraine, ukususwa kweeprimiyamu ze-geopolitical, ukuhla koqoqosho, kunye nokwakhiwa kwempahla yeoyile konke kuya kucinezela amaxabiso eoyile ukuba ahlengahlengise kancinci.
I-Toluene kunye ne-Xylene: Iingxoxo Ezinokwenzeka Ukuba Zibuthathaka Kuqala, Emva koko Ziqine
Iimarike zasekhaya zetoluene kunye ne-xylene kulindeleke ukuba ziqale zihle zize ziphakame ngoSeptemba, kunye noluhlu oluncinci lokuguquguquka ngokubanzi. I-Sinopec, iPetroChina, kunye nabanye abavelisi baya kuqhubeka bebeka phambili ukuzisebenzisa ngoSeptemba, kodwa amanye amashishini aya kunyusa intengiso yangaphandle kancinci. Xa idibene nokunikezelwa okukhulayo okuvela kwizityalo ezintsha ezifana neNingbo Daxie, umsantsa wokubonelela ovela kunciphiso lwesantya sokusebenza olucwangcisiweyo lweYulong Petrochemical uya kuzaliswa. Kwicala lemfuno, ngelixa iindlela zembali zibonisa imfuno ephucukileyo ngoSeptemba, akukho zimpawu zokuthathwa kwemfuno okwangoku. Kuphela kukusasazwa kwe-MX-PX okwandisiweyo okugcine ulindelo lokuthengwa kwe-PX luphila, lubonelela ngenkxaso enamandla yamaxabiso. Ukongeza, inzuzo ephantsi yokuxuba ioyile kunye namaxabiso aphantsi ezinto ezinxulumene nokuxuba ziya kunciphisa ukukhula kwemfuno yokuxuba ioyile. Uhlalutyo olupheleleyo lubonisa ukuba iziseko zemfuno yokubonelela zihlala zibuthathaka, kodwa amaxabiso angoku—aphantsi kwiminyaka emihlanu—anokuxhathisa okukhulu ukwehla okungakumbi. Ngaphezu koko, uhlengahlengiso olunokwenzeka lomgaqo-nkqubo lunokunyusa iimvakalelo zemarike. Ke ngoko, imakethi isenokuba buthathaka kuqala ize ibe namandla ngoSeptemba, kunye nokuguquguquka okuncinci.
IBenzene: Kulindeleke ukuba idibanise izinto kancinci kwinyanga ezayo
Amaxabiso eBenzene anokuhlangana ngokuthe chu ngokukhetha okubuthathaka. Kwicala leendleko, ioyile ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba ihlengahlengise phantsi koxinzelelo kwinyanga ezayo, kunye neziko lokuguquguquka lilonke lihla kancinci. Ngokusisiseko, amashishini asezantsi awanawo amandla okulandela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yokungonelanga kwee-odolo ezintsha kunye noluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo oluhlala luphezulu kumacandelo asezantsi, nto leyo edala ukumelana okukhulu nokudluliselwa kwamaxabiso. Kuphela kulindelo lokuthengwa kweoyile esezantsi ekupheleni kwenyanga olunokubonelela ngenkxaso ethile.
I-PX: Imarike Inokwenzeka Ukuba Idibane Nokuguquguquka Okuncinci
Echatshazelwe luphuhliso lwezopolitiko zaseMbindi Mpuma, ulindelo lokuncitshiswa kwexabiso leFed, kunye nokuphazamiseka komgaqo-nkqubo werhafu yase-US, amaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe anokuthi athengiseke kancinci, enika inkxaso encinci yeendleko. Ngokusisiseko, ixesha lokugcinwa okugxininisiweyo kwePX yasekhaya liphelile, ngoko ke ukunikezelwa ngokubanzi kuya kuhlala kuphezulu. Ukongeza, ukuqaliswa komthamo omtsha weMX kunokunyusa imveliso yePX ngokuthengwa kwezinto ezikrwada ngaphandle zizityalo zePX. Kwicala lemfuno, amashishini e-PTA andisa ukugcinwa ngenxa yemirhumo ephantsi yokucubungula, okwandisa uxinzelelo lwemfuno yokubonelela yePX yasekhaya kunye nokunciphisa ukuzithemba kwemarike.
I-MTBE: Imfuno yobonelelo ibuthathaka kodwa iNkxaso ebiza kakhulu yokuqhuba iTrendi ethi “Bubuthathaka kuqala, emva koko bube namandla”
Ubonelelo lwe-MTBE lwasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke ngakumbi ngoSeptemba. Imfuno yepetroli isenokuhlala izinzile; ngelixa ukuqokelelwa kwepetroli ngaphambi koSuku lweSizwe kunokubangela imfuno ethile, impembelelo yayo exhasayo kulindeleke ukuba inciphe. Ukongeza, iingxoxo zokuthumela ngaphandle ze-MTBE azinamsebenzi, zibeka uxinzelelo oluphantsi kumaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, inkxaso yeendleko iya kunciphisa ukwehla, nto leyo ekhokelela kwindlela elindelekileyo "yobuthathaka kuqala, emva koko ibe namandla" kumaxabiso e-MTBE.
Ipetroli: Uxinzelelo lweZimfuno zoNikezelo ukugcina iMarike ibuthathaka ngenxa yokuguquguquka
Amaxabiso epetroli yasekhaya asenokuqhubeka nokuguquguquka kancinci ngoSeptemba. Ioyile ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba ihlengahlengise phantsi koxinzelelo ngeziko lokuguquguquka eliphantsi kancinci, nto leyo echaphazela imakethi yepetroli yasekhaya. Kwicala lokubonelela, amazinga okusebenza kwiinkampani ezinkulu zeoyile aya kuncipha, kodwa lawo akwiindawo zokucoca ezizimeleyo aya kunyuka, ukuqinisekisa ukunikezelwa kwepetroli okwaneleyo. Kwicala lemfuno, ngelixa ixesha lesiqhelo le-"Golden Septemba" linokubangela ukunyuka okuncinci kwemfuno yepetroli nedizili, ukutshintshwa kwamandla amatsha kuya kunciphisa ubungakanani bokuphucuka. Phakathi komxube wezinto eziguquguqukayo neziguquguqukayo, amaxabiso epetroli yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba atshintshe kancinci ngoSeptemba, kunye nexabiso eliqhelekileyo elinokwenzeka ukuba lihle ngama-50-100 yuan/ton.
Ixesha leposi: Septemba-05-2025